European Biotech Builds a Strategy for a Radioligand Therapy in Metastatic Prostate Cancer

Client Challenge

A European biotech specializing in the development of radioligand therapies (RLTs) needed to make an informed decision about moving forward with one of their programs. They wanted to understand the opportunity for their alpha-emitting RLT to capture a relevant market share of the increasingly crowded and challenging metastatic prostate cancer space in the United States (US) and the European Union (EU), despite several competitors being in the later stages of clinical development.

The client sought to assess the sales potential of its drug candidate, considering the current and future market landscape, especially the positioning of prostate-specific membrane antigen-targeting RLTs. In addition, they needed support in identifying the key elements impacting potential revenues and wanted recommendations on clinical and commercial strategies to maximize them.

The client selected Alira Health for this project due to in-depth knowledge of nuclear medicine and oncology spaces and complexities.

Our Approach

Alira Health’s Management Consulting team focused on providing a range of potential outcomes that would enable the client to make the most informed decision regarding the advancement of the program. The team built a multi-scenario sales model factoring in different potential landscape evolutions. These scenarios depended on the outcomes of several key competitors’ clinical trials which could impact the treatment paradigm for RLTs in metastatic prostate cancer, and thus affect the client’s product uptake.

The Management Consulting team took the following vital steps:

• Appraised all critical dynamics related to advanced prostate cancer management, including epidemiology trends, unmet needs, the current treatment algorithm, the marketed and pipeline competition, and the pricing and reimbursement landscape
• Conducted primary research involving a wide network of medical oncologists across the US and EU to confirm secondary findings and explore expected future changes in the treatment algorithm, including key milestones to monitor, the potential adoption of the RLT modality across the various lines of treatment, discrepancies in uptake dynamics between alpha and beta emitters, and possible RLT access limitations or supply shortages
• Estimated the addressable and serviceable population based on the above, and defined the patient pool that the client’s asset could capture
• Developed a multi-scenario sales forecast based on the varied outcomes of key clinical trials with a sensitivity analysis highlighting key value-driving assumptions

Outcomes

Alira Health’s Management Consulting team analyzed the current therapeutic landscape for metastatic prostate cancer, including RLTs, and assessed expected future changes. The team successfully appraised the positioning of RLTs, including the client’s, within the treatment algorithm, analyzed the current and future competitive landscape, and estimated the asset’s potential price point and future uptake to determine its sales potential.

The project results strengthened the client’s opinion about the viability of the business case, supporting the asset’s further development in the metastatic prostate cancer space. The project also highlighted key milestones and dynamics to monitor in the future which could impact the strategy around the asset.

Key Success Factors

Key success factors included Alira Health’s extensive track record of over 30 projects in nuclear medicine in the past five years, the team’s clear understanding of the unique dynamics within the nuclear medicine value chain, and in-depth knowledge of both the competitive landscape and the challenging payer environment.

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